Tuesday, December 17, 2013

How do the Dodgers play 4 outfielders?

By having a legitimate regular as a 4th outfielder, and having Ethier ready to play all 3 positions, the Dodgers can plan for everybody to be well-rested, get good matchups, and have a better dh than any other NL team for the 10 interleague games at AL parks (and hopefully the World Series).

In fact, there's room for Van Slyke to be the 5th outfielder too.
Last year, the problem sorted itself out via injuries, and that's pretty likely to happen again.  But we can plan out how to keep everyone reasonably busy.

Let's say the Dodgers play 40 games against left-handed starters.  Of the 10 DH games, 3 are started by lefties.

Suppose the first batter in the lineup gets 4.5 plate appearances and the 9th batter gets 3.7.  Whoever sits will be the first bat off the bench.
The 1st 4 columns presume right-handed starting pitcher.  If the Dodgers roll out like

no Ethier
no Kemp
no Crawford
no Puig
LHP
DH (RHP)
DH (LHP)
1
Crawford 7
Crawford 7
Puig 9
Crawford 7
Puig 9
Crawford 7
Puig 9
2
Puig 9
Ethier 8
Ethier 7
Ethier 9
Kemp 8
Puig 9
Kemp 8
3
Hanley 6
Hanley 6
Hanley 6
Hanley 6
Hanley 6
Hanley 6
Hanley 6
4
Adrian 3
Adrian 3
Adrian 3
Adrian 3
Adrian 3
Adrian 3
Adrian 3
5
Kemp 8
Puig 9
Kemp 8
Kemp 8
Van Slyke 7
Kemp 8
Van Slyke DH
6
Uribe 6
Uribe 6
Uribe 6
Uribe 6
Uribe 6
Ethier DH
Uribe 6
7
Guerrero 4
Guerrero 4
Guerrero 4
Guerrero 4
Guerrero 4
Uribe 6
Guerrero 4
8
Ellis 2
Ellis 2
Ellis 2
Ellis 2
Ellis 2
Guerrero 4
Ellis 2
9
P
P
P
P
P
Ellis 2
Crawford 7
#
30
37
25
25
35
7
3



We'd end up with

  • Crawford: 515 PA
  • Puig: 625 PA
  • Kemp: 560 PA
  • Ethier: 480 PA
  • VanSlyke: 165 PA (+ a handful of starts at 1B)

For this exercise, I didn't add in the complexity of getting FedX and backup infielders rotated through.

The matchups point is particularly big since the production is going to be something like



vs. LHP
vs. RHP
Ethier
Scrub (76)
All-Star(142)
Crawford
Scrub (82)
Solid (114)
Kemp
All-Star (160)
Solid (113)
Puig
MVP (180)
All-Star(153)


The number in parentheses is the player's career RC+ (how much better/worse than the league are they at hitting, where the league is 100).  Crawford at least is still fast vs. lefties.  He'll still be a plus defender and runner. So he gets preference over Ethier if you just have to play one of them against a lefty.  Since Kemp & Puig are such monsters vs. LHP, you can afford to carry Crawford in that situation.  Van Slyke can usually offer more vs. LHP than Ethier, so gets to be the DH vs. LHP.

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