'Mid-season' projection accuracy

Halfway (60%) through the season, here at the all-star break, it seems like a good time to pause and see how the projections I made are panning out.  In terms of team winning percentage I got within a few percent on a long list of teams.  But there are some significant positive and negative surprises.

Right on (most accurate at the top)
Miami
Arizona
NY Yankees
Kansas City
San Diego
Texas
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Detroit
Chicago Cubs
Minnesota
NY Mets
Seattle
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Houston

That's over half the teams performing from within 7% of (my) expectations.  So I feel like I did a pretty good job of forming my expectations.   I'm particularly pleased at getting Miami so close to right on, as they would be in general the hardest to predict.  They have a lot of players with short track records and I expected them to finish far from .500.

Overachievers (biggest overachievers at the top) - range is from 30% to 10% error
Pittsburgh (pitching)
Baltimore
St. Louis
Oakland (pitching)
Boston
Cleveland
Colorado (pitching)


Underachievers (biggest underachievers at the top) - range is from 20% to 10% error
Milwaukee
San Francisco (pitching)
Washington (hitting)
Chicago White Sox (hitting)
LA Dodgers
LA Angels
Toronto

If I didn't indicate a main cause for over/under performance above it is due to a combination of hitting surprise, pitching surprise, and luck/timing.

The Dodgers obviously suffered from injury as well as underperformance by those who did play.  I haven't followed / looked at all the other teams closely enough to know in any deeper way where their surprise is coming from.

As a Dodger fan, it's good to see that we're not the single biggest disappointment in major league baseball.  The hot streak of the last 3 weeks moved the Dodgers into being only the 5th most disappointing team.  And critically, the Giants are even a bigger disappointment - so at least I can revel in that.  Furthermore, I reprojected the Dodgers' playing time and performance and see them finishing out the year 39-29 and getting to 86 wins.  I haven't spent an equivalent effort on the rest of the division so not sure if that will be good enough.   Flat-footed, if Arizona keeps winning at the exact same rate they have been, they'll finish at 85 wins.  So it oughta be pretty close.  Trade season is going to matter.