Evaluating trades

One simple use of the projections is to evaluate trades.  Right now the Dodgers project to win 95 games, scoring 706 and letting up 597.  The team recently indicated it would be major buyers at the trade deadline.  Well who might be available that the Dodgers would be interested in?  Well, they could use an upgrade somewhere between Mark Ellis and Luis Cruz, and need a bat off the bench (righty 1B/OF ideally).  Who is like that?   Well, since Hanley can play SS or 3B, we're looking at starting 2B/SS/3B.

Elvis Andrus
Chase Utley
Asdrubal Cabrera
Chase Headley

There are good players on the block in the righty 1B/OF slot, but probably none that want to be a backup.  Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, Corey Hart, they're probably not coming.  So we're looking at someone that's a role player to begin with.  And anyway, the impact of a part-timer is negligible.

So let's just look quick at those four.  Assuming they get dealt for prospects, cash, and or the players being replaced (no other major league pieces).  To keep it simple, let's look on a full-year basis, and not worry about shifting the replaced player to a backup role.  Just a straight swap.  We could refine the evaluation later.

Of course, I'm just looking also at the impact to the team this year.  Real trades are thought of in terms of their impact on multiple years.  You could apply a discount rate to future years, project multiple years out, etc...  I'm not going to do that.

Andrus instead of Cruz
This moves the Dodgers up to 96 wins, scoring 715 and still letting up 597.  Andrus is better at the plate and on the bases.  Both are quite good in the field.

Utley instead of Ellis
Dramatic improvement to 98 wins, 733 runs scored and 598 allowed.   A healthy Utley, as he is reported to be, even at 34, is still a great player in every phase of the game.  Ellis is a good fielder but not much else.  Owed $15M in the last year of his contract, and with the Phillies probably not sniffing the playoffs, and with Utley an LA native, this could be a real thing.

Cabrera instead of Cruz
Cabrera is a good hitter, but a butcher in the field.  This keeps the team at 95 wins, 717 runs scored, 606 allowed.  There is literally no point to this trade as the defense completely cancels the offense.  Cabrera is an all-star, Cruz is journeyman, but defense counts.

Headley instead of Cruz
97 wins, 726 runs scored, 599 allowed.  The Padres would be quite reluctant to deal him to LA though, and extract a significant cost.

Finally, there's crazy things that could happen since the Dodgers have unlimited money.  The Phillies could really give up and trade Lee or Halladay.  The Rockies could trade Tulowitzki.

Oh, just for fun

Tulowitzki instead of Cruz
99 wins, 741 runs scored, 599 allowed

Lee instead of Harang/Capuano/Lilly
98 wins, 706 RS, 574 RA

Halladay instead of Harang/Capuano/Lilly
98 wins, 706 RS, 575 RA