Daily update

Sorry for no updates for a few days. I have been in Scotland and they don't have the internets over here quite so much. Anyway, I am now using both the democratic and the republican price in each market. That eliminates the bias of high prices to stay high while low prices rise. I had been overestimating Obama's chances by looking only at Democratic prices. But meanwhile, Obama has had a very strong week. I now show him as having an overall 86% chance, as he is dominating the simulations that result in close contests. The mean EV he wins is 291, same as the amount he is currently winning.